April 15, 2019 — The latest Pollara-Maclean’s Alberta election poll reveals that Kenney’s UCP (45%) is holding onto 6-point lead over Notley’s NDP (39%) with one day to go.

This lead is stronger than the six points may appear. Regionally, the UCP hold strong leads in Calgary (51%), Greater Calgary (55%), Greater Edmonton (46%), and Rural Central (58%). NDP support is concentrated in Edmonton, where the party holds a dominant lead (61%).  The two parties are statistically tied in Rural South and Rural North.

Demographically, men (48%) are more likely to vote UCP than women (41%), and women (42%) are more likely to vote NDP than men (36%). More importantly, younger voters are more likely to vote NDP, whereas older voters are more likely to vote UCP. This may provide the UCP with an additional advantage, as older voters are typically more likely to turnout than younger voters.

  • NDP support decreases with age: Millennials (42%), Generation X (39%), Boomers (35%).
  • UCP support increases with age: Boomers (54%), Generation X (43%), Millennials (36%)
  • Among Albertans who are absolutely certain to turnout or have already voted, the vote spread remains 6 points: 46% UCP vs. 40% NDP

In an election framed by the issues of jobs, pipelines, and getting tough with the federal government, Kenney and the UCP have emerged as the standard bearers on these issues. When asked to indicate the main reasons for their vote choice, UCP voters overwhelmingly point to their party being the best for Alberta’s economy and getting pipelines built (64%) and to represent Alberta’s interests in negotiations with the federal government (61%).

Conversely, the main reasons cited by NDP voters were their party being the best to represent Albertans of all backgrounds (50%) and to provide ethical, accountable government (46%), with second tier reasons including opposition to other parties (37%) and the NDP being best for the economy and pipelines (36%). To this point in the campaign, voters driven by the issues of jobs, economy, and pipelines appear to be largely attracted to the UCP.

  • Six-in-ten (63%) Albertans feel that Jason Kenney is likely to get construction started on pipelines in the next 3-4 years, if he is elected and forms government.  Just 14% think he is not likely at all to do so. 
  • About half (49%) feel that Rachel Notley is likely to get pipelines built, and almost double the proportion for Kenney (28%) think she is not likely at all to do so.
  • Most importantly, when asked which of these two party leaders is most likely to get construction on pipelines started in the next 3-4 years, 42% of Albertans feel Kenney is most likely, compared to 27% who feel Notley is most likely.

For more information, see our report, data tables and the Macleans article.