ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 - FINAL POLL, JUNE 3-JUNE 5: PCs & NDP NECK-AND-NECK WITH ONE DAY TO GO

June 6, 2018 --- With one day to go before Election Day, the PCs and NDP are running neck-and-neck towards the finish line. In the final poll of our daily roll-up tracking survey for Maclean's, the PCs (38%; -1) and NDP (38%; +1) are tied among decided voters, with the Liberals and Greens trailing at 17% and 6%, respectively.

As undecideds have dropped to 11% of the electorate, the PCs are approaching campaign highs in voter support and the NDP are approaching pre-debate highs. Comparatively, the Liberals are at their lowest point.

The outcome in terms of seats will be determined by voter turnout and regional dynamics.  As we approach Election Day, this is what we are seeing:

  • The PCs have consolidated a lead in seat-rich 905 and Eastern Ontario.
  • The NDP have widened their advantage in the North, consolidated a lead in Southwestern Ontario, and opened a lead in 416.
  • The NDP home-court advantage in South Central Ontario has been eroded significantly by the PCs.
  • The NDP lead with women is offset by the PC lead with men.
  • The NDP lead among millennials, but that lead is more than offset with the key PC asset at the close: their substantial lead with seniors, who have a higher propensity to turnout. Indeed, the PC lead among seniors, likely voters, and 905 voters is sufficient to provide the seats necessary for a clear victory.

In field every day since May 30, this tracking poll has provided daily results based upon our most recent 4 days of polling. To provide the most current and sensitive sounding in our final poll, we have based it upon our most recent 3 days of polling: June 3-5.

Read more:

Maclean's: Ford and Horwath in Popular Vote Photo Finish

Pollara: Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief

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ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 - FINAL WEEK, JUNE 1-JUNE 4: PCs HOLD EDGE IN STATISTICAL TIE WITH NDP

June 5, 2018 --- In the third update to our daily four-day roll-up tracking poll for Maclean's, the PCs (39%; +1) hold the edge in a statistical tie with the NDP (37%; unchanged) among decided voters. Meanwhile, the Liberals drop 3 points to 17%.

Notably, the 2-point PC lead is reliant upon a strong showing on June 2nd, whereas the NDP had a strong showing last night.

In field every day since May 30, this tracking poll has provided results based on our last 4 days of polling. Stay tuned tomorrow for our final poll of the campaign.

Read more:

Maclean's: Ford's Advance Poll Edge

Pollara: Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief

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ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 - FINAL WEEK, MAY 31-JUNE 3: DEAD HEAT CONTINUES

June 4, 2018 --- In the second update to our daily four-day roll-up tracking poll for Maclean's, the dead heat continues with a statistical tie between the PCs (38%; +1) and NDP (37%; unchanged). The Liberals remain at 20%, unchanged since yesterday's poll.

More than one-in-ten (13%; -1) Ontarians are undecided, with Election Day just days away.

In field every day since May 30, this tracking poll provides results based on our last 4 days of polling. Stay tuned for tomorrow's four-night roll-up tracking poll, which will be based on surveys conducted from June 1-4.

Read more:

Maclean's: Doug Ford gains an advantage

Pollara: Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief

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