ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 – POST-DEBATE: NDP MOMENTUM GROWS TO 11-POINT LEAD

May 30, 2018 --- Our new Pollara – Maclean’s post-debate poll sees Andrea Horwath’s NDP (43%; +5 since May 22) riding their leader-driven momentum to an 11-point lead over Doug Ford’s PCs (32%; -5) among Decided Voters. Conducted from Sunday, May 27th (Debate Night) until the afternoon of Monday, May 28th, the poll also found Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals still trailing (17%; -1) – as well as the Greens (5%) and other parties (2%).

As the election matures in voters’ minds, vote intentions are aligning almost perfectly with leader impression positives. Notably, as familiarity with Andrea Horwath has grown, her favourability scores have strengthened, while her opponents are viewed negatively by a majority of Ontarians.

However, the race is not over.  Indeed, it appears significantly tighter when examining vote intentions among those certain and enthusiastic to turnout to vote, as PC voters are more likely to express such sentiments than NDP voters. Moreover, the PCs have a stronger ground operation across more ridings than the NDP, which they can use to fight back against this NDP momentum now and to get-out-the-vote on Election Day.

Read more:

Maclean’s: The NDP lead keeps growing

CityNews: Internal PC polling showed NDP eclipsing Tories until Horwath stumbled

Post-debate poll: Methodology & data brief

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ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 – AT THE MID-WAY POINT: NDP AND PCS IN STATISTICAL TIE HEADING INTO SUNDAY’S DEBATE

May 23, 2018 --- Since our pre-writ poll, the NDP have made notable gains (38%; +8) and the PCs have dipped (37%; -3), resulting in a statistical tie among decided voters.  The Liberals have dropped 5 points to 18% support.

Read more:

Maclean's: On the horse race

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ONTARIO ELECTION 2018 - AT THE STARTING GATE: OUR FIRST POLL OF THE ELECTION FOR MACLEAN’S

May 7, 2018 --- With the official start to the Ontario provincial election on the horizon, Doug Ford’s PCs hold a considerable lead (40%) among decided voters, whereas Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals have fallen to third place (23%). Andrea Horwath’s NDP have moved clearly into second place (30%).

Read more:

Maclean's: The horse race

Maclean's: Ford's regional and demographic strength

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