What We're Reading: How the Polls were Right, Causality is Complex, and Bad Math Ruined English Soccer

June 24, 2018 --- Have time for some coffee or tea and a good read?  Click the links below for three pertinent readings that we are currently enjoying:

Dispelling lingering myths of elections past, pollsters nailed the vote in Ontario (Robert Benzie, Toronto Star)

"The polls were right." 

The Slippery Math of Causation (Pradeep Mutalik, Quanta Magazine)

"Although we tend to credit or blame things on a single major cause, in nature and in science there are almost always multiple factors..." 

How One Man’s Bad Math Helped Ruin Decades of English Soccer (Joe Sykes and Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight)

Sometimes the Next Big Thing isn't the Next Big Thing. Even worse, sometimes it's based on an inaccurate, overly simplistic interpretation.

Ontario Election 2018 Final Report: What Happened? What's Next?

June 12, 2018 --- In addition to our extensive election polling for Maclean's, we also conducted a final survey on the day and night before Election Day - in order to capture insights into voters' mindsets as they were heading to their polling stations, including their demands, expectations, and priorities for the new Ford PC Government.

Please download our report, co-authored with our friends at Enterprise, to see these insights, an overall analysis of the campaign, and an analysis of the social media battleground:

Ontario Election 2018 Final Report: What Happened? What's Next?

Methodology & Data Brief

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June 6, 2018 --- With one day to go before Election Day, the PCs and NDP are running neck-and-neck towards the finish line. In the final poll of our daily roll-up tracking survey for Maclean's, the PCs (38%; -1) and NDP (38%; +1) are tied among decided voters, with the Liberals and Greens trailing at 17% and 6%, respectively.

As undecideds have dropped to 11% of the electorate, the PCs are approaching campaign highs in voter support and the NDP are approaching pre-debate highs. Comparatively, the Liberals are at their lowest point.

The outcome in terms of seats will be determined by voter turnout and regional dynamics.  As we approach Election Day, this is what we are seeing:

  • The PCs have consolidated a lead in seat-rich 905 and Eastern Ontario.
  • The NDP have widened their advantage in the North, consolidated a lead in Southwestern Ontario, and opened a lead in 416.
  • The NDP home-court advantage in South Central Ontario has been eroded significantly by the PCs.
  • The NDP lead with women is offset by the PC lead with men.
  • The NDP lead among millennials, but that lead is more than offset with the key PC asset at the close: their substantial lead with seniors, who have a higher propensity to turnout. Indeed, the PC lead among seniors, likely voters, and 905 voters is sufficient to provide the seats necessary for a clear victory.

In field every day since May 30, this tracking poll has provided daily results based upon our most recent 4 days of polling. To provide the most current and sensitive sounding in our final poll, we have based it upon our most recent 3 days of polling: June 3-5.

Read more:

Maclean's: Ford and Horwath in Popular Vote Photo Finish

Pollara: Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief

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