July 11, 2024 – Since January, Pollara’s ongoing subscription-based syndicated study on the 2024 Presidential Election has regularly polled Canadians about their views and feelings about this pivotal race. In addition to this, we have partnered with Emerson College in the United States to conduct polling amongst Americans, including polls and analysis on the presidential race, key gubernational races, and deep dives into key swing states. In our latest poll of Canadians about the race for the White House, we gauged public views on the state of democracy, the electoral process, and the impact of Trump – both in Canada and America.
Canadians give a tepid but positive assessment of the current state of democracy in their country. In total, 40% are satisfied, but only 7% are very satisfied, as most (33%) feel somewhat satisfied. A quarter (25%) feel neutral on this question. Comparatively, a third (35%) are dissatisfied, including 15% who are very dissatisfied – double the proportion who are intensely satisfied. Albertans (53%), Conservative supporters (53%), and Canadians between the ages of 35 and 49 (43%) are those most likely to be dissatisfied with the current state of Canadian democracy.
Whatever reservations some Canadians may have about the state of our democracy, our electorate is certainly not feeling like the grass is greener south of our border. Only 13% of Canadians are satisfied with the current state of democracy in the United States – with just 3% very satisfied. In contrast, 43% are either somewhat (21%) or very (22%) dissatisfied. Four-in-ten (44%) take a neutral stance on this question. Dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy is shared amongst Canadians of all ages and provinces, with older Canadians (52%) and British Columbians (51%) expressing the highest levels of negativity.
These are some of the results of a Pollara Strategic Insights online survey conducted between June 6 and 17, 2024 amongst a randomly-selected, reliable sample of N=1,750 adult Canadians. The final dataset is weighted according to the demographic and geographic distribution of Canadians based upon the latest Census statistics.
A key element underpinning the health of a democracy is public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process. More than half (54%) of Canadians have confidence in the integrity of their electoral process, compared to 24% who hold the opposite view. The remainder (22%) feel neutral. However, only 25% feel confident in the integrity of the U.S. electoral process – less than half the proportion who feel the same about our own system. Four-in-ten (43%) are not confident in the American system.
This negative view of American democracy appears largely due to Canadian perceptions of former U.S. President Donald Trump and the impact he has had upon U.S. politics. Almost six-in-ten (57%) Canadians feel that Trump has weakened democracy south of the 49th parallel, with this belief particularly strong among Liberal, NDP, and Bloc voters. This is not a surprising result given how our ongoing polling on the Presidential election has consistently revealed that Canadians are cringing about the possibility of a second Trump presidency. Indeed, only about two-in-ten would like to see him returned to office – perhaps because almost half (48%) believe the political climate in the U.S. has a major impact on political stability in our own country.
These are just some selected findings from our ongoing subscription-based syndicated study on the 2024 Presidential Election. To get access to all of the results and insights, subscribe today. For more survey results and commentary on this specific poll, see today’s column in The Hub.
