April 12, 2019 — The first Pollara-Maclean’s poll of the Alberta provincial election reveals that Jason Kenney’s UCP has a 7-point lead with less than a week to go, and enjoys clear leads in every region except for the City of Edmonton.

Alberta Election Chart
Alberta Election Chart

The negativity of the campaign is leaving voters with a sour taste in their mouths. Overall, Albertans provide middling impression ratings for the party leaders, and report that their impressions of both Kenney and Notley have declined since the start of the campaign.

In terms of voter preferences for Premier, Kenney has a strong lead in Calgary, Greater Calgary, the Rural South, and a smaller 7-point lead in Rural Central. Notley has a strong lead in Edmonton and a small 5-point lead in the Rural North. The leaders are tied in Greater Edmonton. 

The Leaders Debate had minimal impact, as just 9% of voters moved because of it – either switching parties (5%), leaving the undecided column (3%), or joining the undecided column (1%). The NDP benefited most, as 6% of NDP Voters switched to them after the Debate, from another party (4%) or from being undecided (2%). The UCP gained just 3% from another party (1%) and undecideds (2%).

For more information, see our report, data tables and the article in Macleans.