October 21, 2024 – The 2024 U.S. presidential race has, at times, seemed like a car wreck, yet Canadians are captivated by it like few other events. Much like drivers compelled to slow down and look, a substantial portion of Canadians can’t help but watch this election unfold. This isn’t passive curiosity but a deep-rooted interest, with most hoping to see Democratic nominee Kamala Harris emerge victorious over Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Interestingly, more Canadian Conservatives now appear to be warming up to a potential President Harris as well, with a portion of them reconsidering Trump compared to just over six months ago.
In March, Canadian Conservatives expressed a small 4-point preference for Trump (41 percent) over Biden (37 percent), with 23 percent undecided. Yet, they also appeared conflicted, as many Conservatives also felt a second Trump Administration would be harmful (42 percent) rather than beneficial (27 percent) to Canada. Now, seven months later, 44 percent of Conservative voters express a slight 2-point preference for Harris over Trump (42 percent).
This notable shift underscores a recalibration within Canada’s Conservative base, suggesting a reconsideration of priorities as they weigh the potential impacts of each candidate’s policies on Canada’s future.
Canadians generally view Harris, the current vice president, favourably. Nearly a third (32 percent) are “excited” about her candidacy, and another 30 percent feel “comfortable” with her as a choice. Only a minority of Canadians feel negatively, with 10 percent “frustrated” and 8 percent “angry.”
This support for Harris cuts across age groups: 22 percent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 report feeling “excited” about her, and 34 percent feel “comfortable.” The level of enthusiasm for Harris rises with age, with 26 percent of those aged 35-49, 39 percent of those 50-64, and 44 percent of older Canadians saying they are “excited” about her candidacy.
Among Canadians who would vote for the Liberal Party, support for Harris is overwhelming, with 56 percent “excited” and 31 percent “comfortable.” Harris is also well-regarded by supporters of the New Democratic Party (NDP), with 51 percent “excited” and 32 percent “comfortable.” Among Conservative supporters, however, feelings about Harris are more mixed. While 20 percent feel “excited” and another 25 percent “comfortable,” there are also significant negative responses, with 17 percent “frustrated” and 20 percent “angry.”
In contrast, former president Trump evokes a predominantly negative response among Canadians. Nearly half of respondents (46 percent) say they feel “angry” toward Trump, with another 19 percent expressing “frustration.” Positive feelings are rare, with only 20 percent of Canadians viewing Trump favourably—10 percent “excited” and 10 percent “comfortable.” Trump’s unpopularity spans all demographics; 36 percent of Canadians aged 18-34, 39 percent of those aged 35-49, 53 percent of those aged 50-64, and 59 percent of older Canadians report feeling “angry” about him.
These are some of the findings of Pollara Strategic Insights study of adult Canadians. From September 11st to 19th, 2024, Pollara conducted a randomly-selected, reliable online survey of N=1,500 adult Canadians. While online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, the corresponding margin of error for a probability sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Pollara Strategic Insights is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), and this research was conducted in compliance with CRIC standards.
For more results from this survey as well as associated analysis and commentary, see our new column in The Hub.
