July 13, 2023 — The latest horse race polling from Pollara shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 32% to 30% among decided voters, with the NDP in third at 21%. These figures are largely in line with 2021 election results, and have been stable over the past 8 months of polling.
The Liberals lead in each of the four Atlantic provinces, while the Conservatives lead in each of the four Western provinces. The Liberals lead the Conservatives by 2 points in Ontario, despite some erosion of their support in the GTA. Meanwhile in Quebec, the Bloc lead the Liberals by 5 points.
This survey used a larger than normal sample size of 7,001 eligible voters, allowing for a far more granular look at vote demographics than is usually available. This includes a deep dive analysis on the nuances of the “youth vote” and “racialized voters”. See the methodology and full findings in our report.
