May 30, 2018 — Our new Pollara – Maclean’s post-debate poll sees Andrea Horwath’s NDP (43%; +5 since May 22) riding their leader-driven momentum to an 11-point lead over Doug Ford’s PCs (32%; -5) among Decided Voters. Conducted from Sunday, May 27th (Debate Night) until the afternoon of Monday, May 28th, the poll also found Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals still trailing (17%; -1) – as well as the Greens (5%) and other parties (2%).
As the election matures in voters’ minds, vote intentions are aligning almost perfectly with leader impression positives. Notably, as familiarity with Andrea Horwath has grown, her favourability scores have strengthened, while her opponents are viewed negatively by a majority of Ontarians.
However, the race is not over. Indeed, it appears significantly tighter when examining vote intentions among those certain and enthusiastic to turnout to vote, as PC voters are more likely to express such sentiments than NDP voters. Moreover, the PCs have a stronger ground operation across more ridings than the NDP, which they can use to fight back against this NDP momentum now and to get-out-the-vote on Election Day.