March 5, 2025 — Pollara shows Liberal fortunes rising in 2025, to the point where the party draws even with the Conservatives under a scenario where they are led by Mark Carney. Consistent with this, one-in-three (34%) Canadians say they are considering a vote for the Liberals more now than they were at the end of 2024.
No single factor explains this rise, rather it’s a perfect storm of four inter-connected factors: Trudeau, Trump, Carney, and Poilievre.
| I’m feeling worse about Pierre Poilievre | 55% |
| I like one of the candidates running to replace Trudeau | 50% |
| Concerns around tariffs/Trump | 50% |
| Trudeau resigned | 39% |
With Trudeau’s exit from the stage, voters are focusing more on Poilievre, who more Canadians feel negatively (42%) than positive (32%) towards.
Meanwhile, Carney has entered the scene with twice as many Canadians feeling positively (33%) rather than negatively (17%) towards him. Among Liberal voters, 41% would be “excited” at Carney becoming the next leader, significantly higher than the level of excitement being generated by other candidates in the Liberal leadership race. See the full details in our report and read additional coverage in the Toronto Star.
