May 10, 2024 – In the lead-up to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Pollara Strategic Insights is regularly polling Canadians about their views and feelings about this pivotal race. In addition to this, we have partnered with Emerson College to conduct polling among Americans, including polls and analysis on the primaries, presidential election, and key gubernational/state elections.
Most of our in-depth survey results and analysis of Canadian and American attitudes about the race for the White House will be reserved for subscribers to our syndicated study on the 2024 US Presidential election. Subscribers will also receive invites to exclusive seminars with experts from Pollara and Emerson College. See full details of the poll findings and subscription information here.
However, we are also sharing some select findings from this ongoing research on our website and at The Hub. This week, Pollara’s Andre Turcotte published a new column at The Hub, analysing the results of an extensive, new survey of Americans conducted between April 25-29, 2024 in 7 crucial swing states. A total of 7,000 registered U.S. voters were interviewed for this study and the results are clear: Trump leads in all 7 of these decisive states and is building a lead in the presidential race, despite voters witnessing the daily sordid, embarrassing details of his hush money trial in New York City.
A lot of attention has been given to the fact that at the national level, Biden and Trump are in a virtual dead heat in popular support. According to the latest data at the polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, Trump stands at 41.4 percent, virtually tied with Biden at 40.7 percent. Emerson College’s latest national findings from April 2024 show Trump at 46 percent, barely ahead of Biden at 43 percent.
While the national picture is interesting, it may not tell us much useful about the election’s outcome. The U.S. presidential election will be won or lost in a few key swing states. When the focus is put where it matters — as in this latest survey — a more definite picture emerges.
At this moment in time, Trump leads by five points in North Carolina, four points in Arizona, three points in Georgia, and two points both in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead by only one point in Michigan and Nevada. Granted, these leads are small, but we cannot dismiss that Trump is indeed leading in every one of those crucial states. Back in 2020, Biden won six of those seven states, only losing to Trump in North Carolina.
When we introduce the complicating issue of third-party candidates in the election, especially the candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr, the situation gets even rosier for the former president. While third-party candidates have no discernible impact in Arizona and Michigan, adding RFK Jr. on the ballot benefits Trump in the other five states. Specifically, Trump’s lead over Biden increases from five to nine points in North Carolina, three to six points in Georgia, two to five points in Wisconsin, and two to four points in Pennsylvania. Moreover, with RFK Jr. on the ballot in Nevada, this race is no longer a toss-up and Trump enjoys a comfortable five-point lead in the Silver State. To put it plainly, the candidacy of RFK Jr. is hurting Biden more than Trump.
Not enough attention is given to the state of the election from the perspective of the Electoral College. Without getting into too many details, it is important to remember that the U.S. president is not elected based on the popular vote but through the arcane Electoral College system. The Electoral College, as used in the U.S. for electing the president and vice president, assigns each state a specific number of electors based on its congressional representation (senators plus representatives). These electors, selected by the state’s political parties, subsequently vote for the president and vice president. The candidate securing the majority of electoral college votes nationwide is declared the president-elect. This system is designed to alleviate the dominance of the more populous states over smaller ones. This is the election result that will matter on November 5, 2024.
If the results of this latest poll hold, Trump will receive 311 Electoral College votes, well ahead of the 270 he needs to get back to the White House and five more than Biden won in 2020.
To read our complete analysis and commentary on these and more select findings, please read our new column at The Hub. To receive all of our Canadian and American polling and analysis on the U.S. presidential election, subscribe to our ongoing syndicated study.
