September 30, 2026 — Pollara’s deep dive on the Quebec provincial election shows 22% of Quebecers say defending Quebec against Donald Trump is a ballot question for them, ranking only behind party platforms (34%) and choosing the best leader (24%). Trump is the top ballot question among CAQ voters by a large margin.
Despite this, when asked how they would vote in a hypothetical election where Trump was not president, vote intent is virtually unchanged. This is in contrast to Pollara polling conducted during the 2025 federal election that showed the Conservative Party leading the Liberals under this same hypothetical.
Our poll finds the PQ leading by 7 points, even though only 24% of decided voters would vote for Quebec separatism. This is because Quebec independence is far from the minds of most voters this election – only 12% identify it as a ballot box question for them.
