April 5, 2024 – In the lead-up to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Pollara Strategic Insights is regularly polling Canadians about their views and feelings about the race. We’ll be sharing some select findings from these surveys on our website as well as exclusive commentary at The Hub.
More extensive, in-depth survey results and analysis of Canadian and American attitudes about the race for the White House will be reserved for subscribers to our syndicated study on the 2024 US Presidential election. In addition to providing monthly updates on how Canadians feel about the US election, Pollara has partnered with Emerson College to provide subscribers with regular reports on polling among Americans. This will include polls and analysis on the primaries, presidential election, and key gubernational/state elections. Subscribers will also receive invites to exclusive seminars with experts at Emerson College. See full details of the poll findings and subscription information here.
Since January, we have been monitoring Canadians’ interest and attitudes toward the upcoming U.S. election. From the beginning, we found that about 60 percent of Canadians are paying at least some attention to the contest, and that less than two-in-ten would like to see Trump re-elected. In our most recent study –conducted from March 15-22 amongst more than 1,500 Canadian adults – we went a step further and explored what impact Canadians expect on Canada from a potential second Trump presidency. In short, Canadians are expecting the worst, as a clear majority (62%) of Canadians feel this scenario would be “a bad thing for Canada.”
Most Canadians believe that if he was re-elected, Trump would implement the following policies. Sixty-one percent say he would cut aid to Ukraine, with 57 percent saying he would insist Canada increase its military spending to meet its NATO commitment.
On the topic of trade, a plurality of Canadians (47 percent) think a new Trump administration would renegotiate the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA). Fifty-eight percent of Canadians say he’d impose new tariffs on Canadian exports.
More than half (55 percent) of our fellow citizens say Trump will restrict immigration to the U.S. from Canada’s border.
Another 45 percent expect a decrease in financial support for building electric vehicles; a sector in which Canada in general, but Quebec and Ontario in particular, have invested billions in.
Canadians are also worried about his impact on the Canadian economy. In specific terms, 52 percent think Trump’s re-election would negatively impact the free flow of goods and services between Canada and the U.S.; 48 percent suggest Canada’s agricultural sector would also suffer, and another 47 percent feel it would negatively impact the value of the Canadian dollar.
Pessimism also prevails around human rights issues. Fifty-one percent of Canadians feel that if Donald Trump returns to the White House, this would have a negative impact on the protection of LGBTQ rights in Canada and 45 percent think it would jeopardize the protection of the reproductive rights of Canadian women. Moreover, a plurality of Canadians also fear Trump would have a negative impact on the protection of Muslim communities in Canada (43 percent). Thirty-six percent of Canadians believe he’d have a negative impact on the protection of Jewish Canadians.
Given this climate of opinion, it is not surprising that if Canadians could vote, Biden would win in a landslide, with 61 percent wanting him to be victorious, compared to 18 percent for Trump.
For more survey results and commentary, see today’s column in The Hub. To receive all of the insights and benefits of our ongoing syndicated study on the 2024 US Presidential election, please subscribe here.
