Americans attracted to, and want more, films and TV shows focused on social issues and causes

January 24, 2019 — In a new survey conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights for Tirota, 80% of American movie and TV viewers say they are attracted to movies and documentaries addressing important social issues or causes, and 80% also feel that the entertainment industry should produce more movies and TV series exploring such issues.

Pollara conducted the online survey among a randomly-selected national sample of N=1,000 adult Americans who had seen at least one recently released movie or viewed a current episodic TV show over the past 12 months. The survey was conducted between November 28 and December 3, 2018.

Among the 53% who reported going to the movies at least once per month, 40% had seen three or more social issue-focussed films over the past 12 months.

Nine-in-ten (90%) feel that movies can play an important role in informing people about social issues, and 77% feel that movies and TV shows with this focus are all the more important given the current political climate.

“The survey evidences a strong preference for purpose-driven content across key demographics, including age, gender, ethnicity, education level and even political outlook,” said Pollara President Craig Worden. “Americans don’t always agree on the substance of an issue, but there is a clear desire for substantive content and engagement.”

Notably, social issue-focussed films and TV shows are on an equal footing with the news media in the eyes of movie and TV watchers. When asked who they trust most to truthfully and fairly represent social issues, equal proportions of Americans choose filmmakers (27%) and the news media (27%). Just 4% trust politicians, and 43% trust none of the above.

For further details, see article in the Hollywood Reporter or survey releases at Tirota and Tiller.

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Public Approval for USMCA Declines Slightly after GM Oshawa Plant Closure

January 17, 2019 — After GM announced the closing of their Oshawa plant, many pundits assumed that public approval for the newly re-negotiated North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – also known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – would plummet. However, our latest survey on this issue reveals that is not the case.

Compared to October 2018, we now see a slight decline in public approval for USMCA and the Trudeau Government’s handling of the negotiations – with disapproval largely holding steady and uncertainty increasing more than disapproval.

  • Canadians who hold an opinion on the matter are split – as about half approve of the USMCA deal (48%) and the Trudeau Government’s handling of the negotiations (50%).
  • Consistent with our previous waves of research on free trade deals and foreign policy matters, about 20-25% of the public tends to answer Don’t Know/Unsure to these questions, likely reflecting a lower level of public engagement or comfort with such subject matter.

A slightly slimmer plurality (35%; -4) of Canadians – 45% of those with an opinion – feel that the Trudeau Government got the best possible deal, but the proportion who feel they should have continued negotiating for a better deal (31%) remains unchanged.

  • Instead, there are slight increases in the proportions who are opposed to any free trade agreement (12%; +2) or express uncertainty in their opinion on the matter (22%; +2).

Regionally speaking, it is notable that Ontarians – residents of the province that is home to the shuttered GM plant – continue to provide among the highest approval levels throughout the survey.

See the full details in our report and associated data tables.

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Economic Outlook 2019: Canadians in Psychological Recession

January 13, 2019 — The results are in for the 24th annual edition of Pollara Strategic Insights’ Economic Outlook Study – Canada’s longest-running study of the public’s perceptions and expectations of the economy and their personal financial situation. And, it reveals that the public mood has turned anxious and negative.

Although the Great Recession has long been in Canada’s rear-view mirror, Canadians did not actually feel that the economy was out of recession until last year. However, the positive outlook of a year ago has proven short-lived, as Canadians are once again in a psychological recession as they head into 2019. Similar to the 2017 edition of this study, half (56%, +21) feel the economy is in recession, with just a third (32%; -18) correctly perceiving it to be in a period of growth.

  • These negative perceptions of the economy are found across all provinces/regions.
  • Far more Canadians feel the country is experiencing a mild (48%) than a severe (9%) recession.
  • And, among those who believe Canada is in a recession, most (48%) expect it to be of a relatively short duration – either 6-12 months (25%) or 13-18 months (23%).  This is a more positive expectation than in previous years, when Canadians who believed the economy was in recession tended to expect a long period of economic difficulty.

Most Canadians hold a neutral-negative outlook for 2019, expecting the Canadian economy and employment levels to remain unchanged or to worsen. Less than two-in-ten expect improvements.

  • Contextually, the public holds somewhat more negative expectations for the U.S. and global economies.

These negative views of the economy are consistent with the public’s assessment of their personal financial situation, where perceptions and expectations have turned negative since last year.

  • Overall, half continue to hold their own, but more are now losing ground (31%; +7) than getting ahead (13%; -8).
  • When considering how their household income will perform vis-à-vis the cost of living in 2019, Canadians are notably less optimistic than last year: 44% (+6) expect to fall behind compared to 42% (-4) who expect to keep pace.

See the full details in our report and associated data tables, as well as further perspective via John Geddes’ article in Maclean’s.

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Second annual Aviva Fraud Report reveals Ontario auto insurance policyholders are increasingly supportive of actions to combat fraud

December 4, 2018 — Aviva Insurance today released their second annual Aviva Fraud Report, containing new polling data about auto insurance fraud in Ontario. The survey findings demonstrate that Ontario auto insurance policyholders remain aware of fraud and supportive of government and law enforcement initiatives to fight it – and increasingly so on both counts, when compared to the 2017 survey.

Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the online survey on behalf of Aviva Insurance. A total of N=1,500 adult Ontarians with a current auto insurance policy were surveyed from October 15 to 24, 2018. Online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, but a probability sample of this size would be considered accurate within +2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

Some of the key findings in the report include:

  • 88% think that auto repair shops inflate the cost of vehicle repairs, compared to 77% in 2017.
  • 86% of Ontarians support government and law enforcement agencies investing more resources to investigate and prosecute fraudulent claims, compared to 78% in 2017.
  • 86% of Ontarians feel that more needs to be done to combat fraud.
  • 73% believe that cracking down on fraud would reduce their current auto insurance premium.

See the Aviva press release for further study details and spokesperson information. Visit Aviva’s dedicated insurance fraud website to download the full 2018 Aviva Fraud Report.

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Majority of Canadians with opinion of USMCA are satisfied with final deal and Trudeau Government’s handling of NAFTA negotiations

November 23, 2018 — Our latest poll for Maclean’s – and our third survey on the NAFTA negotiations and resulting USMCA free trade agreement – reveals that a majority of Canadians who hold an opinion on the subject have positive views of the USMCA deal and the Trudeau Government’s handling of the NAFTA negotiations with the Trump Administration.

A four-in-ten plurality (42%) of Canadians approve of the new USMCA free trade agreement, whereas just over a third (36%) disapprove. However, among those holding an opinion about the deal, a majority (54%) express approval.

  • About two-in-ten (22%) either do not have an opinion or are unsure. This is consistent with our previous waves of research on the NAFTA negotiations as well as most public opinion research on free trade deals and foreign policy matters, wherein 20-25% of the public tends to answer Don’t Know/Unsure to these questions, likely reflecting a lower level of public engagement or comfort with this subject matter.

Almost half (46%) of Canadians feel USMCA will be good (30%) or a mix of good and bad (16%) for Canada. Among those holding an opinion on this front, 55% feel it will be good (36%) or both good and bad (19%) for the country.

  • Canadians hold somewhat lower expectations of the deal’s impact upon their province, with 40% expecting it will be good (27%) or a mix of good and bad (13%) for their province.
  • Almost half (45%) of Canadians feel the deal will be good (35%) or good and bad (10%) for Mexico.
  • Three-quarters (75%) feel the deal will be good (69%) or good and bad (6%) for the U.S.

Nearly half (47%) of Canadians – and 54% of those with an opinion – approve of the job the Trudeau Government did in the NAFTA/USMCA negotiations. Four-in-ten (39%) disapprove, and 14% are unsure.

A plurality (39%) of Canadians – and 49% of those with an opinion – feel that the Trudeau Government got the best possible deal, whereas 31% feel they should have continued negotiating for a better deal. Another 10% were opposed to any free trade agreement, and 20% are unsure.

  • Regionally speaking, positive assessments of the deal and the government’s performance are most likely to be found in Ontario, BC, and Atlantic Canada, followed by Alberta. Negative assessments are most likely to be found in Quebec, whereas middling sentiment is found in Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

See the full details in our report and associated data tables, as well as further perspective via John Geddes’ article in Maclean’s.

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The Change Foundation Releases Findings of Landmark Survey of 800 Ontario Caregivers

November 15, 2018 — The Change Foundation today released their Spotlight on Ontario’s Caregivers report, detailing the findings of their first annual survey of 800 caregivers in the province – that is, those family members, friends, or neighbours who provide care to someone without pay.

Pollara Strategic Insights is proud to be The Change Foundation’s research partner in this landmark multi-year project, leading design, execution, and analysis of annual surveys of caregivers as well the creation, management, and moderation of an advisory panel of 100+ caregivers – hosted within Dialogue, our online panel management and qualitative discussion forum platform.

The Spotlight on Ontario’s Caregivers report is the first of its kind in Ontario. It provides a profile of caregivers, their experiences, and their needs. The objectives for this study were to understand:

  • who caregivers are;
  • who caregivers are caring for;
  • what tasks caregivers are responsible for;
  • where caregivers are turning for information and support;
  • how caregiving impacts the lives and health of both the caregiver and the care receiver;
  • how caregivers feel about their role as part of the healthcare team; and
  • what additional supports or information could help caregivers in their role.

The report can be downloaded from The Change Foundation’s website. In addition to hosting the annual survey reports, their Spotlight on Caregivers webpage will be updated regularly with caregiver stories and additional analyses of the survey data. Check it often.

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A Majority (55%) of Canadians Prefer a Pharmacare Program that Complements rather than Replaces Existing Drug Plans

October 19, 2018 — The Neighbourhood Pharmacy Association of Canada today released the results of a national survey about pharmacare. Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the online survey of 4,173 adult Canadians on behalf of the Association from July 27 to August 3, 2018.

The study found that public engagement on this subject is low, as pharmacare is not a top-of-mind policy or health care priority for Canadians. Thus, the public do not have a clear notion of the specifics of how pharmacare would be executed or the coverage it would provide.

When asked, most (84%) Canadians express conceptual support for a national universal prescription drug program, generally speaking. However, pharmacare is ranked a lower, less urgent, and less deserving priority than most other health care and non-health care issues tested in the survey.

When considering specific approaches to pharmacare, a majority (55%) prefer a program that maintains existing drug plans and either exclusively focusses on providing coverage to those without a plan (20%) or covers those without a plan and allows those with a plan to bill their insurer first and the government second (35%).

Only 30% prefer a program that covers all Canadians and replaces existing government and private plans, and just 15% prefer a program that only focusses on Canadians who face extreme or catastrophic circumstances that require expensive drugs.

For more details, including regional results, please see our report: Pharmacare in Canada: An Overview of Key Findings

Also, see today’s Toronto Star article: Pharmacare is not a top health-care priority for Canadians

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Federal Political Scene, Fall 2018: Liberals hold 6-point Lead over Conservatives, with NDP, Greens, and PPC Trailing

October 12, 2018 — In our latest poll for Maclean’s, the Liberals (40%) hold a six-point lead over the Conservatives (34%) among decided voters, with the NDP (12%) and Greens (7%) trailing. The newly-founded People’s Party (PPC) registers 2%. Within Quebec, the BQ and Québec Debout record 15% and 1% support, respectively.

When considering the party leaders, four-in-ten (39%) Canadians feel that Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister. Just over a quarter (27%) feel the same about Andrew Scheer. Less than one-in-ten (8%) prefer Jagmeet Singh. Just 5% feel that Maxime Bernier would be the best PM, but this level of support is more than double the voter support for his party. Two-in-ten Canadians are unsure which of the party leaders would make the best PM.

Given the newness of the PPC, it is not surprising that Maxime Bernier’s party currently ranks low among decided voters. However, the poll suggests there is potential for the party to grow beyond its current standing. Notably, 19% of Conservative voters already consider it a second choice. And, among the five current issues explored in this poll, 5% of Canadians share the PPC’s stances on all issues and 11% share all but one of the party’s policy positions.

Among the key findings:

  • Almost six-in-ten (58%) Canadians feel that interprovincial trade barriers should be eliminated, whereas just 12% feel they should be maintained.
  • Half (50%) of Canadians feel that health care should continue to be primarily funded and provided by public sector institutions, and only a quarter (25%) feel that people should be able to pay to receive health care services from private sector care providers.
  • Just under half (49%) of Canadians feel that supply management is good for Canada, whereas, only two-in-ten (20%) feel it is bad.
  • Four-in-ten (39%) Canadians are supportive of regional development and aid programs, whereas a quarter (24%) are opposed.
  • The public is split on the federal government’s approach to multiculturalism, as 38% feel it should continue to help ethnocultural communities and celebrate diversity and 37% feel it is going too far on this front – causing division and disunity.

Read the Maclean’s article: Trudeau’s Next Challenge: Free Trade at Home

For more details, including regional results, please see our report: Federal Political Scene, Fall 2018

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Common Good Retirement Initiative – Pollara Survey of Not-For-Profit Employers and Employees finds Strong Demand for Flexible Sector-Wide Retirement Plan

October 5, 2018 — The Common Good Retirement Initiative today released the results of their national survey of employers, employees, contractors, and freelancers in the not-for-profit and charitable sector. On behalf of Common Good, Pollara Strategic Insights designed, executed, and analysed the results of the study, which was conducted from May to September 2018.

The survey was designed to identify employer and employee needs, challenges, attitudes, and preferences regarding retirement savings and planning – and, ultimately, to provide guidance to Common Good as they strive to build the best possible retirement plan for the sector. In total, 441 employers and 504 employees (including contract and freelance employees) from the sector participated in the survey.

Among the key findings:

  • Six-in-ten non-profit or charitable sector employees say their employer offers no retirement benefits.
  • More than eight-in-ten sector employees feel that offering a workplace retirement plan should be a priority for employers.
  • Plan portability as well as applicability to all types of workers (including freelancers) were among the most valued and preferred features for a sector retirement plan.

To learn more, download the report from the Common Good website.

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With recreational cannabis legalization on the horizon, Canadians accept the new policy despite concerns

October 3, 2018 — With two weeks to go until recreational marijuana is legal, a slim majority (54%) of adult Canadians accepts the new policy. This acceptance is based on a third (35%) providing explicit approval and two-in-ten (19%) expressing ambivalence – effectively providing tacit approval. Four-in-ten (42%) disapprove, and 4% are unsure.

Majority acceptance exists despite the fact that 53% of Canadians have some concerns about legalization and relatively few (13%) report using cannabis in the past 12 months.

Notably, based on expressed intent, legalization appears likely to spur minimal increase in marijuana usage – especially regular usage – at least in the early stages. Less than two-in-ten (17%) say they are likely to buy marijuana through the new legal retail system, including just 5% of those who have never tried it. Among those expressing some likelihood of buying legally, just 12% expect to do so on a regular basis. However, post-legalization opportunities, experiences, and orthodoxy may impact public attitudes and behaviours over the course of time.

These are some of the findings included in the Wave 3 report of Pollara’s subscription-based syndicated study The Public Lens: Legalizing Marijuana – the definitive barometer of public opinion on one of Canada’s most prominent public policy topics. Since March 2017, subscribers to the study have received fresh, semi-annual insights into public and user engagement, perceptions, and attitudes about marijuana as well as their expectations, concerns, support levels, and preferences regarding legalization and various policy elements (ex. timelines, age limits, retail approaches, home growing regulations, pricing, taxation, pardons, edibles, oils, and infused beverages).

For additional research findings, see our short excerpt from the Wave 3 report.

The next wave of the study will be fielded 1-3 months after legalization, with a focus on post-legalization perceptions, experiences, usage patterns, and public/consumer demands on governments, producers, brands, and retail operations. Results will only be available to subscribers. If you are interested in subscribing, please contact us.

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Annual IFIC – Pollara Mutual Fund Investors Survey (2018) sees Highest Confidence in Mutual Funds in 13 Years of Tracking Research

September 27, 2018 — The Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC) and Pollara Strategic Insights today released the results of their 13th annual survey of mutual fund investors – the Canadian Mutual Fund Investor Survey. In each year since 2006, IFIC has engaged Pollara to conduct the survey.

The survey was initiated to provide better data around the attitudes and opinions of Canadian mutual fund holders, to identify their needs, expectations, behaviours, and opinions, and to track these over time. The research provides helpful insights into a number of issues including: methods of purchasing mutual funds, the advisor’s role, use of alternative purchase channels, impressions regarding fees, and the use and perceived value of CRM2 statements.

“IFIC invests heavily in research to understand the interaction of policy, regulation and market forces, and this research forms the foundation of IFIC’s evidence-based insights,” said Paul Bourque, President and CEO, IFIC. “A key take away from this year’s Pollara study is that, despite positive results in some areas related to fee understanding, there is room for improvement with the annual reports on fees and performance that investors receive. These results underscore how important it is for us to continue to focus our energies on improving disclosure effectiveness.”

“This year’s study found that confidence in mutual funds has reached the highest point in the past 13 years of our annual tracking research,” stated Craig Worden, President of Pollara Strategic Insights. “It is notable that investor confidence is reaching such heights while we are also finding that mutual fund investors are significantly more aware of CRM2.”

With respect to fee understanding and CRM2 statements, 7 in 10 investors are confident that they understand their mutual fund fees. While investors say they had fewer general conversations about fees and commissions compared to last year, specific conversations about fees paid to the firm and MERs have increased and have consistently increased since the beginning of CRM2. 84% of mutual fund investors who have read their statements report that their CRM2 statements “clearly show the rate of return on my account”.

However, there was a 10% decrease in the number of investors who say the reports are easy to understand (down to 72%) and an 8% decrease in the number who say the statements provide all the necessary information (down to 74%). While there was a slight improvement from last year in those that say the statements “clearly show fees I pay to my advisor’s firm or dealer firm” it remains an overall low number, at 53%.

Some of the key findings include:

  • Mutual funds continue to outperform other financial products by wide margins when it comes to investors’ confidence in the product’s ability to help them reach their financial goals – at 89%, this is an all-time high.
  • 85% of people who purchase mutual funds continue to do so through an advisor.
  • Investors continue to place a strong value on advice and have high levels of trust in their advisor. 76% of mutual fund investors report having used their advisor in the last year for either investment planning, financial planning, or retirement planning.A vast majority agree their advisor is worth their fees and that they encourage them to have better saving and investing habits.
  • The majority of investors with advisors continue to prefer their advisor is paid through mutual funds fees. This proportion has increased slightly from 53% last year to 59% this year – the highest level seen since tracking on this question started in 2013.
  • Usage of and interest in online tools such as robo-advisors continues to be low, with 23% of mutual fund investors aware of robo-advisors and 3% having used one.

As in previous years, Pollara conducted a live-interviewer telephone survey with a reliable, randomly-selected, representative sample of N=1,000 mutual fund holders aged eighteen years of age or older who make all or some of the decisions regarding mutual fund purchases in their household.

This press release is available in English and French.

The full research report is also available in English and French.

More information about the Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC) as well as additional research on this and related topics can be found on the IFIC website and research portal.

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In Search of Canada’s “Middle Class”, Wave 4 (2018)

September 20, 2018 — In Canada, class-based terms and categories such as “The Middle Class” are difficult to define. Indeed, much debate has been focussed upon this elusive definition – as well as whether utilizing the term is even appropriate or useful within the Canadian and North American context. Nevertheless, during a time when political leaders across the country and the continent are making frequent references to helping “The Middle Class”, it is important to identify Canadians who feel Middle Class – as they are the audience for these appeals.

Our study finds that, at a “gut” level, three-quarters (76%) of Canadians either moderately or strongly identify as Middle Class. Yet, when forced to choose their “class” from among a 4-category hierarchy, less than half (43%) of Canadians report this class identification. Thus, general references and appeals to the Middle Class will find an audience among most Canadians. However, if the discussion evolves into a detailed consideration of class identity, a significant proportion of Canadians will feel left out of those appeals.

  • Although just under half (48%) of Canadians are optimistic about the future of the Middle Class, confidence in personal (57%) and descendant (68%) social mobility remains quite high. However, Canadians identifying as Poor (39%) are much less likely to feel confident about their personal social mobility than those identifying as Working Class (61%) or Middle Class (61%).

In addition to gauging how the term “Middle Class” resonates with Canadians, our study also explores the public’s perspectives on their current and long-term personal fortunes and comparative generational standing. Overall, we found that Canadians feel less positive about their personal financial situation. Compared to 2017, fewer Canadians feel financially secure (10%; -8) or say they are getting ahead with some savings (35%; -5), whereas a majority say they are just getting by without any savings (45%; +10) or falling behind on their monthly expenses (10%; +3).

Time Spent 2018: Canadian Perspectives on the Time they Spend with Family, Work, Exercise, Screentime, and Entertainment

August 23, 2018 — How do Canadians feel about their level of work-life balance, their amount of social media and smartphone screentime, and the perennial struggle between choosing physical fitness over couch potato entertainment options like video games, sports broadcasts, shows, and movies?

And, how do they feel about the level of participation of other household members in each of these activities?

Time Spent 2018 answers these questions. The study reveals how many Canadians feel that they or other members of their household spend too much time on their cellphones and social media, working, playing video games, and watching sports, movies, and shows on TV, Netflix, YouTube, etc. It also reveals how many Canadians feel that they or other household members do not spend enough time with family, helping out with family errands and housework, and exercising.

Among the noteworthy findings:

  • When it comes to work-life balance, about four-in-ten Canadians feel that they or another household member spend too much time working (43%) and not enough time with family (37%).
  • When considering screentime, about half of Canadians feel that they or someone else in their household spend too much time on their smartphones/cellphones (58%) or social media (46%).
  • When it comes to the struggle between choosing physical fitness over couch potato entertainment, most (72%) Canadians feel that they or another household member do not spend enough time exercising. Moreover, half (55%) feel that too much time is spent watching shows and movies.

Overall, when identifying activities where too much or not enough time is spent, it is notable that Canadians tend to point the finger of criticism at themselves much more so than at other household members.

For the full survey results, including demographic and regional breakdowns of the findings, please see our report: Time Spent 2018

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Health Care in Canada Survey: 13th Edition (HCIC 2018)

August 22, 2018 — Results of the 13th edition of the Health Care in Canada (HCIC) survey were announced today in Ottawa. Established in 1998, the HCIC Survey is Canada’s longest-running, most in-depth survey of the public, general/family physicians, specialists, nurses, pharmacists, allied health professionals, and health care administrators. It identifies and tracks perceived strengths, areas of concern, key current issues, and opportunities for improvement in health care quality, accessibility and affordability.

The 2018 edition is the 13th wave of the study, with additional regular waves of research scheduled in the years ahead. This edition of Canada’s report card on the health care system looked at a variety of issues including opinions about chronic disease prescription usage, timeliness of access to health care, challenges faced by non-professional caregivers, and options for end-of-life care and the opioid crisis. Among the highlights of this year’s survey:

  • Wait times are the top concern. Some 43% of the public and 31-41% of health professionals identified wait times as the most important health care issue in Canada. According to respondents, timely access to the health care system has decreased over the last 5 years and only health care administrators think timely access will improve in the next 5 years.
  • Team-based health care is considered the best way to increase access to health professionals. While 80% of the public support encouraging health professionals to work in teams with other types of health care providers, the level of support varies amongst health care providers (62-72%) and stands at only 38% for administrators.
  • Six-in-ten Canadians diagnosed with a chronic disease don’t take their medicines as prescribed. The top reported reasons for non-adherence were forgetfulness and taking medication based upon how the individual feels.

Since its inception in 1998, the HCIC survey has been conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights, supported by the HCIC survey partners, with principal funding from Merck Canada. The HCIC survey partners and sponsors are a broad group of national, multi-institutional health care stakeholders including many of the country’s top professional associations, not-for-profit health organizations, and institutions: the Canadian Cancer Society; Canadian Home Care Association; Canadian Hospice Palliative Care Association; Canadian Medical Association; Canadian Nurses Association; Canadian Pharmacists Association; Constance-Lethbridge Rehabilitation Centre, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Rehabilitation; McGill University; Health Charities Coalition of Canada; HealthCareCAN; Innovative Medicines Canada; Institute of Health Economics; Studer Group Canada; Merck Canada; Strive Health Management; and, CareNet Health Management Consulting.

The 2018 survey results can be found at the HCIC website, hosted by McGill University. This site acts as the public repository for all data, findings, reporting, and publications arising from the current and past editions of the HCIC Survey. However, you can visit the Latest Insights webpage of www.pollara.com to view forthcoming publications and webinar presentations on the 2018 results. Sign-up for our newsletter to receive updates.

Canadians Increasingly Happy with Trudeau Government’s Handling of NAFTA Negotiations

August 17, 2018 — Representing a significant 11-point increase since December 2017, 56% of Canadians approve of the job that the Trudeau Government is doing in the ongoing NAFTA negotiations with the U.S. and Mexico.  Just 24% disapprove, and 20% are unsure.

Our second wave of research on public perceptions, preferences, and expectations regarding the NAFTA negotiations reveals that public opinion has held steady since December 2017 – except for this notable increase in approval ratings, which has occurred across all provinces.

Canadian preferences for the outcome of the negotiations remain clear. A majority (55%; +1) continue to want a new NAFTA deal only if there are moderate or minor concessions to the U.S., as few are supportive of a deal that makes major concessions.

Public expectations are largely unchanged since December. Four-in-ten (42%) expect the negotiations to produce a revised NAFTA that is either a fair deal (23%) or overly favourable to the U.S. (19%). Another quarter (25%) expect NAFTA to be cancelled – either with no immediate replacement in sight (8%) or replaced by individual two-country deals (17%). Less than one-in-ten (7%) expect NAFTA to emerge unchanged, and about a quarter (26%) are unsure.

Notably, most Canadians continue to feel that NAFTA has been good for Canada (49%; +3) and their province (46%; +4), with few feeling it has been bad (16%) – but about two-in-ten are unsure.

Full details in our report:  Canadian Views on NAFTA Negotiations, Wave 2

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Six-in-ten Ontarians hold moderately positive impressions of their primary hospital

August 8, 2018 — Our annual provincial benchmarking survey reveals that the reputation scores for Ontario’s hospitals remain steady and moderately positive – overall and in terms of quality of care.  Overall, about six-in-ten Ontarians are at least moderately satisfied with their primary hospital on an overall (58%) and quality of care (61%) basis.

Across the regions, hospital impression ratings are higher in the East and Southwest, and lower in Hamilton-Niagara and the North – with slight increases in the Southwest and declines in Hamilton-Niagara since 2017. Toronto and the 905 GTA Belt remain steady with ratings aligned with the average.

Full details in our report: Hospital Reputation in Ontario, 2018

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Six-in-ten Ontarians are moderately satisfied with their municipal government, but this isn’t true in every region

August 3, 2018 — Our annual provincial benchmarking survey reveals that Ontarians’ municipal satisfaction levels remain steady and moderately positive – in terms of both governance and services. Overall, at least six-in-ten Ontarians are at least moderately satisfied with their local government as well as the quality and range of services provided.

However, not every region is satisfied.

Municipal satisfaction is highest in the 905 GTA Belt and the East, followed by the City of Toronto. Notably, the 905 GTA Belt posts moderate increases in satisfaction compared to the 2017 wave of our study.

The North remains the least satisfied – with just half or less expressing satisfaction on the three elements tested.  The Southwest and Hamilton-Niagara also post relatively low satisfaction levels – especially with local municipal governance, as just 48% and 55%, respectively, are satisfied in this regard.

Full details in our report: Municipal Satisfaction in Ontario, 2018

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Health Care in Canada Survey: 12th Edition (HCIC 2016)

June 27, 2018 — The latest in our series of analyses of the results of the 12th edition of the Health Care in Canada (HCIC) Survey has been published in the current issue of Healthcare Quarterly.

Although the 2016 wave of the HCIC Survey witnessed a growing concern that medicare may require major strategic repairs or a complete rebuild, a majority of stakeholders perceive continuing underlying quality in our clinical care and look forward to both system- and patient-centred initiatives to improve health care in the future. What is the top improvement priority among both public and professional caregivers? The enhanced availability of less expensive prescription medications.  In other words, pharmacare – although not necessarily a program that replaces existing drug plans.

Read the article here:  Healthcare Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 1, 2018

Established in 1998, the HCIC Survey is Canada’s longest-running, most in-depth survey of the public, general/family physicians, specialists, nurses, pharmacists, allied health professionals, and health care administrators. The 12th and most recent edition of the HCIC was conducted in 2016, and the next wave of research will be conducted in 2018.

Additional data, findings, and reporting on the 2016 HCIC Survey and all previous editions can be found via the HCIC website hosted by McGill University. Also, our webinar presentation summarizing the key findings of the 12th Edition of the HCIC can be viewed in English or French via the Canadian Foundation for Healthcare Improvement (CFHI).

The HCIC Survey has been conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights since its inception, supported by the HCIC survey partners, with principal funding from Merck Canada Inc. Current survey partners include the Canadian Cancer Society, Canadian Foundation for Healthcare Improvement, Canadian Home Care Association, Canadian Hospice Palliative Care Association, Canadian Medical Association, Canadian Nurses Association, Canadian Pharmacists Association, CareNet Health Management Consulting, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Rehabilitation, Constance-Lethbridge Rehabilitation Centre, Health Charities Coalition of Canada, HealthCareCAN, Institute of Health Economics, McGill University, Merck Canada Inc., Strive Health Management, and Studer Group Canada.

What We’re Reading: How the Polls were Right, Causality is Complex, and Bad Math Ruined English Soccer

June 24, 2018 — Have time for some coffee or tea and a good read?  Click the links below for three pertinent readings that we are currently enjoying:

Dispelling lingering myths of elections past, pollsters nailed the vote in Ontario (Robert Benzie, Toronto Star)

“The polls were right.” 

The Slippery Math of Causation (Pradeep Mutalik, Quanta Magazine)

“Although we tend to credit or blame things on a single major cause, in nature and in science there are almost always multiple factors…” 

How One Man’s Bad Math Helped Ruin Decades of English Soccer (Joe Sykes and Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight)

Sometimes the Next Big Thing isn’t the Next Big Thing. Even worse, sometimes it’s based on an inaccurate, overly simplistic interpretation.

Ontario Election 2018 Final Report: What Happened? What’s Next?

June 12, 2018 — In addition to our extensive election polling for Maclean’s, we also conducted a final survey on the day and night before Election Day – in order to capture insights into voters’ mindsets as they were heading to their polling stations, including their demands, expectations, and priorities for the new Ford PC Government.

Please download our report, co-authored with our friends at Enterprise, to see these insights, an overall analysis of the campaign, and an analysis of the social media battleground:

Ontario Election 2018 Final Report: What Happened? What’s Next?

Methodology & Data Brief

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CANADIANS WOULD HAVE A BALL HOSTING THE 2026 FIFA WORLD CUP

January 27, 2018 — If Canada co-hosted the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with matches played in Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, and Montreal, four-in-ten (43%) Canadians say they would be very (23%) or somewhat (20%) likely to watch games (on TV or online) or attend them in-person.

On April 10, 2017, the soccer federation presidents of Canada, Mexico, and the United States announced that they would submit a joint bid for the 2026 FIFA World Cup sporting event. If this joint bid is successful, it would be the first World Cup to be co-hosted by three countries.

Four-in-ten (42%) Canadians are very (22%) or somewhat (20%) likely to watch a Canada co-hosted 2026 World Cup on TV or online, and two-in-ten (21%) are very (8%) or somewhat (13%) likely to attend matches in-person.

  • Canadians who are the most likely to watch matches during a Canada co-hosted 2026 World Cup can be found in Ontario (54%), BC (46%), Alberta (42%), and Saskatchewan (39%). They are less likely to be found in Manitoba (34%), Atlantic Canada (29%), and Quebec (28%).
  • Canadians who are the most likely to attend matches during a Canada co-hosted 2026 World Cup can be found in Ontario (28%), BC (25%), and Alberta (22%). They are less likely to be found in Saskatchewan (16%), Quebec (13%), Manitoba (12%), and Atlantic Canada (8%).

These are the results from a new national survey conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights. The online survey was conducted from December 11 to 18, 2017 among a random sample of 1,207 adult Canadians.  As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error is larger for sub-segments.

WORLD CUP 2018

Looking forward to a World Cup that is closer on the calendar, a third (34%) of Canadians say they are very (16%) or somewhat (17%) likely to watch games (on TV or online) or attend the FIFA World Cup being hosted by Russia in June and July of this year.

  • Notably, this projection is 9% lower than for a Canada co-hosted World Cup in 2026.

A third (33%) of Canadians are very (16%) or somewhat (17%) likely to watch the 2018 World Cup on TV or online, but just 4% are very (1%) or somewhat (2%) likely to attend matches in-person.

  • Canadians who are the most likely to watch 2018 World Cup matches can be found in Ontario (44%), BC (34%), and Alberta (32%). They are less likely to be found in Saskatchewan (29%), Manitoba (26%), Quebec (22%), and Atlantic Canada (17%).

To learn more, read our report.

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CANADIAN ECONOMIC SENTIMENT FINALLY RECOVERS TO 2008 PRE-RECESSION LEVELS

January 21, 2018 — Canadians have felt that the country’s economy has not recovered from recession every year since 2008 in Pollara Strategic Insights’ annual Economic Outlook study – until now. However, the national 10-year high in sentiment masks regional disparities.

The current wave of the study, conducted in December 2017, reveals that half (50%) of Canadians finally feel that the economy is in a period of growth, which is a significant increase of 16 percentage points over last year.  Notably, just a third (35%) feel that the country is in a recession, a major decline of 22 points compared to last year.

  • The exceptions are the majorities of residents of Saskatchewan (57%) and Alberta (56%) feeling that Canada is in recession.   Majorities of residents of Ontario (55%) and Quebec (56%) feeling that the economy is growing. Residents of BC (48% growth vs. 33% recession) and Manitoba (46% vs. 35%) are more likely to feel the economy is growing, whereas Atlantic Canada is split (42% vs. 41%).

These are the results from the 23rd wave of Pollara Strategic Insights’ Economic Outlook Study – Canada’s definitive and longest-running study of the public’s perceptions of the economy and their own personal finances.  The online survey was conducted from December 11 to 18, 2017 among a random sample of 1,207 adult Canadians.  As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error is larger for sub-segments.

EMOTIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

Overall, according to Pollara’s Emotional Index, the economy does tend to stir more negative than positive emotions, but last year’s trend towards a more positive economic mood continues. More than half (56%) of Canadians feel at least one negative emotion about the economy (-7 since last year; -16 since two years ago) and 44% feel at least one positive emotion (+3; +7). The most prevalent negative emotion is worry (38%) and the most prevalent positive emotion is optimism (28%).

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IMPROVING

Canadians aren’t sure what to expect for the economy in 2018, as a third (36%) expect it to neither improve nor decline, and a quarter (27%) expect it to improve (up 5% compared to year ago).  Another quarter (26%) expect the economy to decline, and 12% are unsure.

Similarly, a quarter (27%; +4) of Canadians also expect the country’s employment situation to improve in 2018, with another 38% expecting it to remain the same. Just a quarter (23%) expect it to get worse, and 11% are unsure.

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ECONOMY BLEAK

The international context is important, as the grass appears to look greener north of the 49th parallel for Canadians. There is increased economic optimism in Canada while the public also reports increased pessimism about the U.S. economy to the south. Notably, just 19% (-8 compared to last year) expect the U.S. economy to improve, whereas four-in-ten (43%) expect it to get worse. Two-in-ten (22%) expect it to remain the same, and 16% are unsure.

PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION POSITIVE BUT WORSENING

Although Canadian views on the economy are notably improved, perceptions and expectations of their own personal finances are slightly more negative compared to last year. Nevertheless, Canadians do hold more positive than negative views of their personal financial situation. When considering their own finances, half (53%; -3) say they are holding their own and two-in-ten (21%; -7) say they are getting ahead. A quarter (24%; +4) are losing ground.

  • BC (32%) and Saskatchewan (31%) residents were most likely to be losing ground, whereas Ontario (25%), Manitoba (23%), and Quebec (21%) residents were most likely to be getting ahead.

Overall, according to Pollara’s Emotional Index, Canadians’ personal financial situation stirs more positive than negative emotions, with six-in-ten (62%; -3 compared to last year) Canadians feeling at least one positive emotion about their personal finances and 49% feeling at least one negative emotion (+1). The most prevalent positive emotions are calm (38%), confidence (35%), and optimism (34%), whereas the most prevalent negative emotion is worry (33%).

VIEWS WITHIN NAFTA CONTEXT

This wave of the Economic Outlook study included questions about the current NAFTA talks between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico.  (See our website for the separate release on these results.)  During our analysis of the study data, we found a correlation between those Canadians who feel NAFTA has been bad for the economy (14%) and those who are more likely to report negative assessments of the economy and their financial situation.

For example:

  • Two-thirds (66%) of Canadians who feel that NAFTA is good for the national economy say we are in a period of growth, whereas a majority (55%) of those who feel NAFTA is bad for the economy say we are in a recession.
  • Three-in-ten (29%) Canadians who feel that NAFTA is good for the national economy say they are getting ahead financially, whereas 19% say they are losing ground. The reverse holds true for those who feel that NAFTA is bad for the economy: 18% say they are getting ahead and nearly four-in-ten (37%) say they are losing ground. Similarly, 60% of those who feel the economy is growing say NAFTA is good for Canada compared to just 37% of those who say we are in recession.

These results raise the question of whether the NAFTA-negative cohort of Canadians has suffered real or perceived impacts to their financial livelihood due to the free trade agreement. Regardless, this cohort is notably more likely to be found among Canada’s lower income and education brackets.  Almost four-in-ten (38%) NAFTA-negative Canadians report a household income of $50,000 or less compared to less than a quarter (23%) of NAFTA-positive Canadians.  Similarly, NAFTA-negative Canadians are much more likely to hold a college or technical school education (40%) than NAFTA-positive Canadians (27%), and much less likely to hold a university degree (40% vs. 59%).

To learn more, download Pollara’s 2018 Economic Outlook.

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Canadians Unprepared for a Potential Trump Exit from NAFTA

January 12, 2018 — Just 14% of Canadians expect NAFTA to be cancelled, despite rampant speculation in political circles and the editorial pages that President Donald Trump will do exactly that.  On the other hand, just 8% expect the current NAFTA deal will emerge unchanged.

A majority (52%) expect a new deal – although that majority is split down the middle over whether it will be generally fair to all three countries (25%) or overly favourable to the U.S. (27%). A quarter (26%) are not sure of what to expect of the trade talks.

A similar proportion (23%) is not sure whether the current NAFTA deal has been good or bad for Canada. But three times more Canadians feel NAFTA has been good for Canada (46%) than bad (14%).

These are the results from a new national survey conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights. The online survey was conducted from December 11 to 18, 2017 among a random sample of 1,207 adult Canadians.  As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error is larger for sub-segments.

Canadians do not want the Trudeau Government to make a new NAFTA deal at any cost.  A majority (54%) prefer to make a deal only with moderate or minor concessions to the U.S., with just one-in-ten (11%) willing to make a deal that delivers major concessions to the U.S.

More Canadians (45%) approve of the Trudeau Government’s job performance on this file, with only a quarter (27%) expressing disapproval – although approval is higher in Ontario (47%), Quebec (50%), and Atlantic Canada (50%) than in Alberta (33%), Saskatchewan (37%), Manitoba (40%) and BC (42%)

About a quarter (28%) of Canadians are unsure, which is a consistent finding in most surveys on trade agreements – as about a quarter of the public appears largely unengaged in these matters.

Read Pollara’s Report on Canadian Views on NAFTA

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New Year, New Beginnings

January 2, 2018 — New Year.  New Beginnings.

A note from Don.

The New Year brings the promise of new beginnings – or in my case, a new beginning rooted in the not so recent past.

I am excited to share that with the retirement of Pollara’s founder, the inimitable Michael Marzolini, I am coming home as owner of Pollara Strategic Insights.

Research has always been my first professional love, since my mid-term paper in Politics 101 more than thirty years ago.   And today’s research industry is surrounded by deep disruption and requires some fresh ideas on how to light a path forward.

I am convinced that the path charted by the team at Pollara, led by Executive Vice President Craig Worden is the right one:  Steering clear of political party work to focus the best and brightest research minds on the corporate, public, and third sectors.  That’s why Craig will be taking the reins going forward as President.

Craig and Chief Operating Officer Wendy Iwai have built a great team with such leading industry talents as Vice-President Lesli Martin, and Research Managers Daniel Dharmasurya and Mubashera Kothawala.

And I am thrilled to announce that one of Western Canada’s most esteemed pollsters and strategists, Mike McDonald, is coming on board at Pollara as Senior Associate, located in Vancouver, joining our terrific Research Associates Danielle Armengaud and Martin Redfern in Ottawa.

Pollara is a welcome complement to my ongoing work with Brian Topp, Ken Boessenkool, Marcella Munro, and a great team of public affairs advisors at KTG.

The addition of Pollara also rounds out my international work with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, with the role of Managing Director of GQR Canada passed to Elizabeth Sena in early 2017.  Pollara and GQR will be working closely together to bring the best research solutions to clients in Canada and abroad.

That’s all for now, but Pollara will have more exciting news in the days and weeks to come as we work to build up and build out on our strengths – experience, creativity and perspective in designing and interpreting public opinion and human behavior.

I want to close by saying that I owe Michael a tremendous debt of gratitude, as a mentor and supporter of my career.  There simply couldn’t have been a better place to learn and grow than the Pollara he led for so many years.

Happy 2018, and I hope to see you soon.

Don
don.guy@ideasfromdon.com