Alberta 2019: With 1 day to go, Kenney’s UCP (45%) holding onto 6-point lead over Notley’s NDP (39%)

April 15, 2019 --- The latest Pollara-Maclean’s Alberta election poll reveals that Kenney’s UCP (45%) is holding onto 6-point lead over Notley’s NDP (39%) with one day to go.

This lead is stronger than the six points may appear. Regionally, the UCP hold strong leads in Calgary (51%), Greater Calgary (55%), Greater Edmonton (46%), and Rural Central (58%). NDP support is concentrated in Edmonton, where the party holds a dominant lead (61%).  The two parties are statistically tied in Rural South and Rural North.

Demographically, men (48%) are more likely to vote UCP than women (41%), and women (42%) are more likely to vote NDP than men (36%). More importantly, younger voters are more likely to vote NDP, whereas older voters are more likely to vote UCP. This may provide the UCP with an additional advantage, as older voters are typically more likely to turnout than younger voters.

  • NDP support decreases with age: Millennials
    (42%), Generation X (39%), Boomers (35%).
  • UCP support increases with age: Boomers (54%),
    Generation X (43%), Millennials (36%)
  • Among Albertans who are absolutely certain to
    turnout or have already voted, the vote spread remains 6 points: 46% UCP vs.
    40% NDP

In an election framed by the issues of jobs, pipelines, and getting tough with the federal government, Kenney and the UCP have emerged as the standard bearers on these issues. When asked to indicate the main reasons for their vote choice, UCP voters overwhelmingly point to their party being the best for Alberta’s economy and getting pipelines built (64%) and to represent Alberta’s interests in negotiations with the federal government (61%).

Conversely, the main reasons cited by NDP voters were their party being the best to represent Albertans of all backgrounds (50%) and to provide ethical, accountable government (46%), with second tier reasons including opposition to other parties (37%) and the NDP being best for the economy and pipelines (36%). To this point in the campaign, voters driven by the issues of jobs, economy, and pipelines appear to be largely attracted to the UCP.

  • Six-in-ten (63%) Albertans feel that Jason Kenney is likely to get construction started on pipelines in the next 3-4 years, if he is elected and forms government.  Just 14% think he is not likely at all to do so. 
  • About half (49%) feel that Rachel Notley is likely to get pipelines built, and almost double the proportion for Kenney (28%) think she is not likely at all to do so.
  • Most importantly, when asked which of these two party leaders is most likely to get construction on pipelines started in the next 3-4 years, 42% of Albertans feel Kenney is most likely, compared to 27% who feel Notley is most likely.

For more information, see our report, data tables and the Macleans article.


Alberta Election

Alberta 2019: Kenney’s UCP (45%) hold 7-point lead over Notley’s NDP (38%)

April 12, 2019
--- The first Pollara-Maclean’s poll of the Alberta provincial election reveals
that Jason Kenney’s UCP has a 7-point lead with less than a week to go, and
enjoys clear leads in every region except for the City of Edmonton.

Alberta Election Chart
Alberta Election Chart

The negativity
of the campaign is leaving voters with a sour taste in their mouths. Overall,
Albertans provide middling impression ratings for the party leaders, and report
that their impressions of both Kenney and Notley have declined since the start
of the campaign.

In terms of
voter preferences for Premier, Kenney has a strong lead in Calgary, Greater
Calgary, the Rural South, and a smaller 7-point lead in Rural Central. Notley
has a strong lead in Edmonton and a small 5-point lead in the Rural North. The
leaders are tied in Greater Edmonton. 

The Leaders
Debate had minimal impact, as just 9% of voters moved because of it – either
switching parties (5%), leaving the undecided column (3%), or joining the
undecided column (1%). The NDP benefited most, as 6% of NDP Voters switched to
them after the Debate, from another party (4%) or from being undecided
(2%). The UCP gained just 3% from another party (1%) and undecideds (2%).

For more information, see our report, data tables and the article in Macleans.


Leading researcher Richard Leigh-Bennett joins Pollara team

Pollara Strategic Insights is proud to announce that Richard Leigh-Bennett has joined our growing team as Vice President.

A market research veteran and leader for more than 30 years, Richard brings to Pollara his extensive research experience working for clients in the private and public sector, in Canada, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Asia/Pacific, South America and the Caribbean.  

Based in Ottawa, Richard will be Pollara’s lead representative for federal government clients as well as private and association sector clients in the National Capital Region.  

He also assumes the leadership of our growing tourism and gaming research practices, applying the expertise he has honed while conducting research studies for the largest destination marketing organizations and dozens of lottery regulators and operators throughout North America.    

Prior to joining Pollara, Richard was a Senior Vice President at Harris/Decima and also ran his own research consultancy.  

Stay tuned for Pollara announcements about some of our new research insights offerings in the gaming and tourism sectors, which we will be developing with Richard over the coming months.